Durham Research Online

نویسندگان

  • George Cairns
  • Paul Goodwin
چکیده

In this paper, we engage with O‟Brien‟s (2004) identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of “hard” multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to “soft” scenario planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations – such as lexicographic ranking where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the scenario process.

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تاریخ انتشار 2014